(SOUTHERN COLORADO) — In the world of meteorology, fall begins on Sept. 1. The season goes from September to November; thereafter the winter months of December, January, and February take over.

The climate prediction center regularly releases longer-term predictions with ranges for ‘above average’ and ‘below average’ moisture and temperature. The CPC releases time frames such as:

  • 8-to-14-day outlook
  • Monthly outlook
  • Seasonal outlook (next three months)
Drag the sliding feature to see temperature vs moisture outlook

Above here is one of the shorter-term predictions that the CPC offers: the 8-to-14-day outlook. Early September, gives us a look at what early fall might look like.

Right now, it appears September will start off a bit drier and warmer than normal. Folks up in the Pacific Northwest may experience some cooler-than-average temperatures with more moisture potential.

Drag the sliding feature to see temperature vs moisture outlook

For the month of September, it appears that Southern Colorado can expect fairly normal moisture with potentially above-average temperatures. Keep in mind that average temperatures for September drop from the lower 80s to the lower 70s by the end of the month.

If you’re looking for the moisture, be sure to head out east near the Appalachians and avoid the Great Lakes region this time around.

Drag the sliding feature to see temperature vs moisture outlook

As for the fall meteorological time frame, it looks like our moisture content is expected to be about average for this time of year. Temperatures appear to be potentially above average with a bit of a bullseye over the Desert Southwest.

Something to note though, is that we are heading into an El Nino Fall/Winter which can often have impacts on our weather. During El Nino, the jet stream usually hangs out more toward the south side of the country which can influence moisture and airmass transport.

El Nino years can sometimes be a bit more active too in terms of incoming storm systems, so we’ll just have to wait and see how this year plays out.

Finally, here is a look at how our temperatures normally progress through meteorological fall. Note the lower 80s in early September and then the chilly upper 40s by late November.