The spread for the AFC championship game has swung back in the Chiefs’ favor after quarterback Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in practice Wednesday.

Kansas City opened as a 1.5-point home favorite over the Bengals. Bettors quickly jumped on that line with Mahomes’s high ankle sprain looming large over this rematch of the 2022 conference title game. The spread flipped toward Cincinnati, which then became a 2.5-point road favorite earlier in the week.

The news that Mahomes recorded a full practice sparked another line movement. As of Thursday afternoon, the Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook for Sunday’s matchup with the Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium, where they will host a record fifth consecutive AFC championship game.

Cincinnati has defeated Kansas City in each of the last three meetings between the two teams. The Bengals won, 27-24, in Week 13 and by the same score in overtime on this very same stage a season ago to advance to the Super Bowl. And in Week 17 of the 2022 regular season, Cincinnati won, 34-31.

The Chiefs were favored in all three games and Joe Burrow has never lost to Mahomes in three career matchups.

Kansas City has been one of the worst teams in the league this year against the spread (ATS). The Chiefs are 6–11–1 ATS and failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites against the Jaguars in the divisional round. They won, 27-20, with Mahomes limping around in the second half.

Conversely, the Bengals have been one of the best teams to bet on this season with a 13–5 ATS mark. They were 5.5-point road underdogs last week against the Bills and won outright, 27-10. Cincinnati is also 8–2 ATS on its current 10-game winning streak.

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