COLORADO SPRINGS — All it takes for a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP reads, and the numbers point to the possibility in the second quarter of 2022.

The first quarter of 2022 did have a -1.5 GDP read, so all it would take for the economy to technically be declared “in recession” would be another negative read in the second quarter. Economic expert Tatiana Bailey said that, while it’s of course tough to predict given the many variables in play, The Atlanta Federal Reserve does track this information, and as new data comes in, they predict where the GDP will end up for that quarter.

While all the data is not in, so far the Federal Reserve’s forecast is looking at a 0% growth rate for the second quarter. Bailey said that data indicates we’re very close to being in a recession, if not potentially in one now. Most experts think it will happen this year, said Bailey.

So what does this mean for jobs?

In previous recessions, the U.S. has seen very high unemployment rates, up to 13%. Bailey said due to the current low unemployment rates, she does not believe that will happen this time.

“We’re at an incredibly low unemployment rate right now, 3.4% across the United States, and we have record job openings of 11.4 million. In fact, job openings are 60% higher now than they were in April of 2019,” said Bailey.

Bailey said given those numbers, it’s fairly unlikely that we’ll hit the same high unemployment rates seen in past recessions. If anything, what businesses are more likely to do is cut back on the job openings or listings that they have posted.

With that in mind, Bailey said if you’re in a job that you feel stable at, it’s probably a good idea to stay in it, as we may not see the robust job openings moving forward that we’ve had during the Covid period.