(SPONSORED) — The gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2022 was released recently, and economic expert Tatiana Bailey explains what that number indicates for the future and the possibility of a recession.

Bailey said the GDP measures all of the economic activity in the U.S., and is therefore a good proxy for whether the economy is growing, by how much, or whether it’s shrinking. The GDP read was positive in the third quarter, growing 2.6%, and when comparing the economic activity in the third quarter to the previous quarters of 2022, Bailey said the data shows our economy has grown.

Bailey said those statistics are noteworthy because in the first two quarters of 2022, the US economy shrank. The first half of the year had negative GDP reads, putting the U.S. arguably in recession territory. While the news for quarter 3 is good, Bailey said most experts are still predicting that a U.S. recession is likely in 2023.

The severity of such a recession is contentious among experts, Bailey said, with some saying interest rate hikes are too severe and will cause a rough landing. Others say the U.S. economic data is mixed, and that many fundamental measures are positive, such as the robust job openings, low unemployment rates and easing supply chains.

Bailey said forecasting for the future is especially difficult with more than the usual variables, such as the war in Ukraine, the energy dependence of Europe and many other parts of the world, and governmental impacts.

However, Bailey said she believes the U.S. is in a relatively stable and good position compared to economies of similar size. The U.S. is energy independent and food independent, Bailey said, and we’re still creating plenty of jobs. So many, in fact, she said the U.S. doesn’t have enough people to fill them. The U.S. is also making strides in reducing carbon emissions, and continuing to innovate.