Does strength of schedule matter in the NFL?
Posted: 01.17.2012 at 4:30 PM

Interesting notes heading into next week’s conference championship games:

- Of the four remaining starting quarterbacks, two (Eli Manning and Tom Brady) are Pro Bowlers this year and potential Hall of Famers.  The other two (Alex Smith and Joe Flacco) are what many describe as byproducts of a good system who benefit from great defenses.  But get this: in the regular season, Smith and Flacco combined for 10 wins against teams who finished the season with winning records.  Manning and Brady combined for one – and that one was Manning’s win over Brady in Foxboro in week 9.

- The Baltimore Ravens went 6-0 against teams with winning records this season.  The San Francisco 49ers went 4-1 against teams with winning records, and the one loss was to Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.  Meanwhile, the New England Patriots went 0-2 against teams over .500, while the New York Giants went just 1-3, and their only win was that Patriots game referenced above.  In other words, the Giants and Patriots combined for just one win against winning teams, and it was against each other, and the 49ers and Ravens combined for just one loss against winning teams, and it was against each other.

- Because Brady’s playoff win was against a Denver Broncos team that finished 8-8 (9-9 including playoffs), the Patriots (and Brady) enter the conference championship game without a regular season or playoff win over a winning team, the first team in NFL history to do that.

- The Baltimore Ravens were the only AFC North team to win a playoff game despite three teams from the division making it to the postseason.  The AFC North was the only division to have three teams finish with winning records.  The AFC East, NFC East and NFC West had just one such team, and the AFC West had zero.

So how much does strength of schedule matter in the NFL?  The two teams that appear to be the early trendy picks to win (Patriots and Giants) played relatively soft schedules, while the two “underdogs” (Ravens and 49ers) appear to be more battle-tested.